How win rate and expectancy are calculated

Both numbers use your closed trades and their net P&L, after commissions, fees and swap.

Winning, losing and break-even trades

  • Winning trade — net P&L above zero
  • Losing trade — net P&L below zero
  • Break-even trade — net P&L of exactly zero

Because the count uses net P&L, a trade that made a little before costs can end up as a losing trade.

Win rate

Win rate = winning trades ÷ closed trades

Closed trades include break-even trades. Open trades aren't counted until they close.

Trade expectancy

Expectancy is what a trade made on average.

Trade expectancy = total net P&L ÷ closed trades

It works out the same as (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss), with break-even trades counting as zero.

Example (sample account, three months)

Closed trades312 (171 winning, 139 losing, 2 break-even)
Average winning trade$58.40
Average losing trade−$61.20
Total net P&L171 × 58.40 − 139 × 61.20 = $1,479.60
Win rate171 ÷ 312 = 54.81%
Trade expectancy1,479.60 ÷ 312 = $4.74

A win rate above 50% with a small expectancy means the average loss is a little larger than the average win. That's worth a look in the profit factor and your R-multiples.

Where to find them

  • Dashboard — Per-Trade Expectancy at the top
  • Reports → Overview — Win Rate and Trade Expectancy at the top; winning, losing and break-even counts under Win/Loss & Streaks; average win and loss under P&L Statistics
  • Reports → Tags, Strategies, Symbols — the same numbers for each group

Use the account selector, date range and filters at the top to choose which trades are counted.

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